Over the past few months, we've laid eyes on countless mock simulations with so many different permutations about how the 2023 NFL draft could unfold on Thursday. Now, let's get bold with our predictions.
As we all know, the draft never pans out exactly how we thought in our minds—no matter how hard we study team roster needs and previous years to identify front-office trends.
So, we're not trying to nail every pick in the first round. Instead, our NFL experts, Gary Davenport, Brad Gagnon, Kris Knox, Maurice Moton and Brent Sobleski will give you the potential shockers with some of their unique draft takes.
Which team will make the most surprising pick on Thursday? Is there a possible trade on Day 1 that will make our jaws drop? Who's the biggest steal in this year's class?
Most Surprising Pick
Davenport: Houston Texans don't draft a quarterback second overall
There has been no shortage of speculation that the Texans could pass on taking a quarterback second overall, with ESPN's Adam Schefter reporting that Houston could instead elect to go with the top-rated defensive player on its board.
Wait, what?
It would be one thing (assuming Houston isn't sold on this year's top prospects under center) for the team to trade back and stockpile picks. Alabama edge-rusher Will Anderson Jr. (the presumptive top defender) is an excellent player.
But an edge-rusher isn't going to change the trajectory of that floundering franchise—not with Davis Mills under center. And punting another season in the hopes that Houston can land Caleb Williams (let's be honest—he's who this is about) of USC next year is the kind of "plan" that can easily backfire.
Gagnon: Seattle Seahawks take a quarterback fifth overall
Geno Smith had a great year! And the Seahawks signed him to a new three-year deal! Meh. The team also knows that there's a good chance Smith's 2022 campaign was a fluke, and it's beginning to look like one of the big four quarterbacks in this draft class will be on the board when Seattle is on the clock.
The Seahawks also know they can move on from Smith pretty easily in a year. So, he's either a solid bridge, or he excels again for a year or two and you instead flip whoever is chosen in this scenario to a quarterback-needy team in 2024 or 2025. It's not outlandish, especially if Will Anderson Jr. is indeed off the board, and Seattle is uncomfortable with Jalen Carter.
Knox: Texans pass on QB at No. 2
This probably won't be a total shock, given the fact that a lot of recent buzz suggested that Houston won't go with the second-best quarterback on its board at No. 2. However, I do think a lot of fans will be surprised (and perhaps disappointed) if the quarterback-needy Texans don't take a signal-caller as soon as possible.
DeMeco Ryans and offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik both come from a San Francisco 49ers team that just had a seventh-round rookie lead it to the NFC title game. I think they'll be confident in their ability to take a prospect like Will Levis or Hendon Hooker at No. 12 (or by trading up from No. 12) and develop him into a high-level starter.
I can see the Texans taking a defensive prospect like Will Anderson Jr. or Tyree Wilson at No. 2 and making a play for a quarterback later. Alternatively, they may trade down a few spots, take a quarterback and use the extra draft capital to move up from No. 12 for one of those blue-chip defenders.
Moton: Tennessee Titans select QB Hendon Hooker with 11th pick
The MMQB's Albert Breer identified the Tennessee Titans as a sneaky quarterback-needy team that's done its homework on the top signal-callers, particularly Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud and Will Levis. At No. 11, the Titans could miss out on all three of them.
Barring a move up, the Titans can pivot to plan B, which may shock some people. Tennessee takes Hendon Hooker, an in-state prospect who performed at the level of Heisman Trophy candidate before tearing his ACL in November. As a two-year starter for the Volunteers, he threw for 58 touchdowns and five interceptions.
According to NFL Network's James Palmer (h/t Bleacher Report's Francisco Rosa), "plenty of teams" see Hooker as the third-best quarterback in this year's class. The Titans may be one of those clubs. They can allow Hooker to sit and recover from his knee injury while Ryan Tannehill plays out the final year of his contract.
In this spot, Hooker could come off the board before Levis or Anthony Richardson.
Sobleski: Philadelphia Eagles select Texas RB Bijan Robinson with 10th overall pick
Defensive line is the default setting for Philadelphia Eagles general manager Howie Roseman. The organization invests heavily in its front, and the current crop still features older options in Brandon Graham and Fletcher Cox. This particular position group is a safe bet regarding the 10th overall selection.
However, the Eagles front office also values running backs, unlike many other situations.
In this year's class, Texas' Bijan Robinson is a top-five talent regardless of position. In a draft that's not stacked with legitimate first-round talent and Philadelphia's search for a "unique player," Robinson's every-down skill set as a runner and receiver will add tremendously to the Eagles offense and take pressure off of quarterback Jalen Hurts. Also, the Eagles can address another position with their second opening-round selection.
