While several games remain in the 2022-23 NFL postseason, it's never too early to look ahead at the looming offseason. Free agency, the trade market and the draft will determine a lot for next season and the 2023 playoff race.
This season's playoff field included seven teams that didn't make the postseason last year. Free-agent and trade additions like Marcus Williams, Christian Kirk, Evan Engram, Tyreek Hill and Khalil Mack helped new squads enter the mix. So did high draft picks like Ken Walker III, Charles Cross, Kayvon Thibodeaux, Tyler Linderbaum, Travon Walker and Devin Lloyd.
Of course, teams can't be major offseason players without cap space. For several franchises, that'll be a problem. As of this writing, nine NFL teams are projected to be more than $10 million over the salary cap, and each will have to make difficult decisions.
We'll dive into the nine most cap-strapped teams heading into free agency, which is slated to begin March 15. We'll examine the toughest decision each franchise faces and how things could unfold.
Teams are listed in alphabetical order.
Green Bay Packers: Will the Team Bring Back Aaron Rodgers' 'Glue Guys'?
Projected Cap Space: -$14.5 Million
The Green Bay Packers' offseason will be dominated by the uncertainty around quarterback Aaron Rodgers. The 39-year-old struggled in 2022, and there's no guarantee he'll be back for 2023.
Rodgers could retire or try to force a trade to a different team, which will likely require a contract restructure. He signed a three-year extension last March that leaves $99.8 million in dead money on his contract.
Following the season, Rodgers hinted that his future could hinge on finding the right situation.
"Right situation, is that Green Bay or is that somewhere else? I'm not sure," he said on The Pat McAfee Show (h/t ESPN's Rob Demovsky). "... There's a lot of interesting names that we'll see if there's desire to re-sign certain guys that are glue guys in the locker room."
Several of Rodgers' longtime teammates, including Randall Cobb, Allen Lazard, Marcedes Lewis, Mason Crosby and Robert Tonyan, are set to be free agents in March. Assuming the Packers want Rodgers back, they may have to re-sign several of these players to placate him.
A year ago, Green Bay traded Rodgers' top target, Davante Adams, to the Las Vegas Raiders. Rodgers spent the better part of the season trying to establish chemistry with the new-look receiving corps, and the results were disastrous. If the Packers have to replace several more of his "glue guys," he may decide Green Bay isn't the right situation for him.
The problem is that with a $14.5 million cap deficit, re-signing players will be a challenge. Green Bay must decide if it's worth it—if Rodgers is worth it—long before March 15. If the Packers decide to run it back with Rodgers, they may request a pay cut or restructure in order to financially fit his favorites.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Does the Team Replace Shaquill Griffin?
Projected Cap Space: -$20.3 Million
The Jacksonville Jaguars are the lone team on this list that remains alive in the postseason. They'll look to reload and, ideally, improve their roster heading into 2023.
However, finding the necessary cap space won't be simple. The Jags are projected to be more than $20 million over the cap, and they'll need to clear cap space just to sign their incoming draft picks.
Jacksonville can jump-start the process by moving on from cornerback Shaquill Griffin. The 2021 free-agent addition appeared in just five games this season before suffering a season-ending back injury. Last year, he wasn't exactly a star. Though Griffin was a serviceable starter, he allowed an opposing passer rating of 109.5 in coverage.
Releasing him would save Jacksonville $13.2 million on the 2023 cap.
The problem is that if Jacksonville doesn't keep Griffin, it will have to replace him. Pass defense has been an issue this season—the Jags ranked 28th in passing yards allowed—and one could argue cornerback is a need even if Griffin is on the roster.
Jacksonville isn't guaranteed to find an upgrade either. Given the cap situation, chasing a top corner like James Bradberry or Jamel Dean isn't realistic, and a rookie cornerback would be far from a sure thing.
Recent first-round picks like Jeff Okudah and Caleb Farley have had early struggles at the pro level, albeit in part due to injuries.
While Griffin hasn't lived up to his three-year, $40 million contract in Jacksonville, he was a Pro Bowler in 2019. The 27-year-old should also still be in his prime. The cap savings will be enticing, but if Jacksonville believes Griffin can return to Pro Bowl form, it may look to trim salary elsewhere.
